一、题目：

Exact simultaneous confidence intervals for logical selection of a biomarker cut-point

二、主讲人：

Yang Han

三、摘要：

Four new principles are proposed in this work for logical biomarker cut-point selection methods to adhere to: subgroup sensibility, sensitivity, specificity, and target monotonicity. At every cut-point value, our method gives confidence intervals not only for the efficacy at that cut-point value, but also efficacies in the marker-positive and marker-negative subgroups defined by that cut-point. These confidence intervals are given simultaneously for all possible cut-point values. Using Alzheimer’s disease and type 2 diabetes as examples, we show our method achieves the four principles. Our method strongly controls familywise type I error rate (FWER) across both levels of multiplicity: the multiplicity of having marker-positive and marker-negative subgroups at each cut-point, and the multiplicity of searching through infinitely many cut-points. This is in contrast to other available methods. The confidence level of our simultaneous confidence intervals is in fact exact (not conservative). An application (app) is available, which implements the method we propose.

四、主讲人简介：

Dr. Yang Han is a Senior Lecturer / Associate Professor in Statistics in the Department of Mathematics at the University of Manchester in the UK. Her main research interests are simultaneous inference and multiple comparison procedures. She is a Fellow of the UK Higher Education Academy and a Fellow of the Royal Statistical Society. She has won a Distinguished Achievement Award for Teacher of the Year at the University of Manchester.

五、邀请人：

聂天洋 数学学院教授

六、时间：

4月25日（周二）14:30-15:30

七、地点：

中心校区知新楼B座924报告厅

八、主办：

山东大学数学学院